Tag: analysis
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What is technical analysis?
When I first started off learning TA, I thought it was ‘technical’. There is nothing technical about it. Technical tends to mean something very complex. It’s not that. TA is a strange two words. Actually, there is little in the way of analysis with pen and paper. Almost never is a calculator required. Basically you…
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Bitcoin: Investor, trader, gambler or idiot?
In the last few months we’ve received inquiries from several about Bitcoin and various similar things, often referred to as cryptocurrencies. In essence many of these folk are the ones who missed out on making millions by not buying a few Bitcoin when it was dirt cheap. Now, they don’t want to make the same…
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Why there are no rules
Many new traders are brainwashed by various experts out there into believing that there are certain rules in trading. For example some say, “Never margin to more than 10% of your account size.” Others go, “Ignore the RSI totally.” Traders can sometimes become confused about what they refer to as ‘rules’. Rules may be self…
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AUDUSD – bearish
AUDUSD is at this time at a potentially critical point. The charts will need much further study. This is not a recommendation to take a position. DISCLAIMER: The information provided herein is opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of investment.…
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EURUSD – learning from reflection
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. We can learn lessons but in doing so there is a risk of the coulda-shoulda-woulda phenomenon. The following charts show some interesting features in EURUSD. Any lessons there should be applied cautiously.
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The power of time momentum
I’ve now coined the term ‘stealth trading’ to mean trend following. All this is perfectly legal!! The chart below shows generosity to the markets. No longer are we fighting with the markets. We’re being kind in order to get our due returns. This is entirely different to a snatch-and-grab approach. See original assessment here at Tradingview.…
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Trends, micro-trends and time frames
Important in trend-following is to know your time frame and which trend you’re following. It’s easy to forget. Sometimes a trader may start off on a 4H time frame and then see and opportunity on a 1D time frame. The initial acceptable loss (the stop-loss) would have been determined on the 4H. Switching to a…
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How following a trend can work
The chart below shows an ideal situation. In this example the trend was entered quite late. Caution: ideal does not mean representative of all trades. To learn more study the chart, where it is accepted that a very high percentage of setups will fail/lose. This is a game about losing but it’s not for losers!…
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What is and is not prediction?
The nature of what ‘prediction’ means came up a couple days ago, in one of my online discussions. The words that caused me to look into this were, “What’s harder to predict? 1 pip movement or 1000 pip movement?” – in the course an exchange of ideas on different methods. This question was partly rhetorical and somewhat argumentative (not that…
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EURUSD Analysis
This is my latest analysis on EURUSD. This is based on combining a number of indicators to find a probability estimate of where the trend may go. In this analysis a trend is identified. No prediction is made. A strategy for entry and following of the trend is worked out. Probability estimates based on standard…
