The natural bias of price direction

This is about looking at candles or price and the mind noticing that price is going in a particular direction.

So a trader comes to think naturally that ‘it’s going south’ or ‘it’s going north’. Taking a position on this sort of observation often turns out to be wrong. All that matters is where the visible trend is going. Why? Because price may move south in a trend heading north.

The bias created by observation of where price is going on several candles is apposite to the direction of the trend.

Amazingly new traders especially look for confirmations in candles. There is a big movement out there following candlestick patterns etc. It appears to be a science and one cannot argue with ‘believers’.

Reality though is that one or even a group of candles informs very little about probability of direction of price.


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