Tag: trend

 

EURUSD – learning from reflection

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. We can learn lessons but in doing so there is a risk of the coulda-shoulda-woulda phenomenon. The following charts show some interesting features in EURUSD. Any lessons there should be applied cautiously. 

Complex trends

For some time I’ve been looking at trend lines. It has been noticeable that not all trends are simple. Complex trends may have minor trends within them as in the example below. Why is this important? It’s about how or when you enter a trend. Trend lines are fascinating when you watch them over a long period of time. We can’t really explain them Their power needs to be respected.

Assessing trend strength

It’s usually possible to easily spot the direction of a trend by looking at a chart – that’s the easy part of trading. What’s not as easy is to work out how strong the trend is. By ‘strong’ I mean, if you’re putting your money on the trend going in the preferred direction, you would wish to have some idea of how powerful or reliable is the push. See below a clear trend down onRead More

Get the trend in perspective

Perspective is everything! The following charts show different perspectives of NZDCAD. The moral of this story here is, not to maintain a narrow focus. This will require some deep thought. Perspectives change when you change your perspective. 

Stalking NZDCAD

NZDCAD is showing an interesting setup at the moment. My analysis below suggests it worthy of a short anytime soon. NZDCAD ripe for a short by Captain_Walker on TradingView.com

Value in waiting and CSW

In recent weeks I’ve been thinking about whether it makes sense to wait on a pull back on an uptrend to enter long. Some conflicting thoughts came to mind: Waiting means I could miss the ‘boat’. But importantly I lose nothing. Thinking about this more deeply, I think losing nothing is far more important. There may be a sense of loss in missing the boat but actually I’ve lost nothing in missing the boat. NoRead More

Stealth trading

I’ve now coined the term ‘stealth trading’ to mean trend following. All this is perfectly legal!! The chart below shows generosity to the markets. No longer are we fighting with the markets. We’re being kind in order to get our due returns. This is entirely different to a snatch-and-grab approach. See original assessment here at Tradingview. This is a follow up to EURUSD Analysis on 13th May 2016. (Snapshot reinserted here for ease of reference.)

Caught a big fish

The infographic below shows a big fish on the hook. Well, big fish are probably harder to reel in but they’ll supply more protein – innit?!! They’ll compensate for most of the losses on small fish thrown back or lost. Yes, my line may be snapped – no problem – cuz I know there are other big fish in the sea. DISCLAIMER: The information provided herein is opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statementsRead More

Is common sense allowed in trading?

The answer to this question is ‘no’ – if you’ve been trained in some system of rules, which you’re meant to follow rigidly.  The beauty of trend-following methods, is that it allows for a degree of common sense.  Indicators are there to help paint a picture. Trend followers are not chained by indicators or rules. There are some traders who cannot trade well without a set of rigid rules. It is not the purpose ofRead More

Trends, micro-trends and time frames

Important in trend-following is to know your time frame and which trend you’re following. It’s easy to forget. Sometimes a trader may start off on a 4H time frame and then see and opportunity on a 1D time frame. The initial acceptable loss (the stop-loss) would have been determined on the 4H. Switching to a higher time frame and keeping the same stop-loss  as a lower one is not a good idea. Why? It meansRead More