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Extreme volatility

Whilst volatility is necessary in trading there are issues with extreme volatility that traders need to consider. The clickable chart below shows one example of extreme volatility with Copper (CUUUSD). The size of a reasonable stop-loss which is related strongly to account size, is a limiting factor. If your account is say £2000 how much of a hit can you take in one trade like this? Not much. You’d be depending on luck to jumpRead More

Is volatility your friend?

Every trader knows that volatility is the thing that is necessary in order for the price to have movement. But there are different kinds of price movements. Some instruments move in fairly neat directions up, then retrace and move up again. We all love these. There are some others that are ‘all over the place’. The chart below shows a volatile situation on 15 min time frame. Degrees of volatility seen, depend a lot onRead More

No courses, no horses.

Over the last few months there has been much reflective practice. This is about looking back at what one has done in the past, learning and re-learning from mistakes, and understanding how novices to financial trading approach it. A mistake is usually, in simple language, recognising a genuine error that has happened. Learning from a mistake means doing something differently to avoid it happening again or reducing likelihood of recurrence. Understanding how the uninitiated thinkRead More

Sterling causes excitement

Those who were watching Pound Sterling, would have seen some excitement recently. The Prime Minister, Theresa May, called a snap election on 8th June 2017. This caused the fainthearted to dump GBP for about 15 – 30 minutes. Snipers knew this was just a short high breeze. Then GBP rose like a phoenix for the next few hours. The first screenshot shows that if you were positioned to catch the activity, you could have gainedRead More

Mind the gap

Gaps are traditionally taken by new traders and some gurus, to mean that price will continue on balance, in the direction of the gap. In financial trading that is only true some of the time. Even if it is true, say 55% of the time, what does it mean for new traders? Nothing! Why? Because the only issue in profitability is how a new trader controls their acceptable loss (aka stop loss). The chart ofRead More

Looking again at Earnings Releases

This recent bounce on DEERE & CO has got me looking again at Earnings Releases.   For those who would play ER’s a Guaranteed stop maybe advisable (cost of this need to be factored into the equation) or Reward to Risk ratios. Alternatively no guaranteed stops may be taken but risk of significant slippage would need to be assessed.

Expecting to lose – the sleep test

Nobody likes to lose – I can safely say. It’s been hardwired in us as part of the survival instinct, that we need to win. Financial trading is a very different ‘game’. You have to expect to lose, in order to win. This is not to say that we have to like losing. Instead we need to get close to the idea that losing is not actually losing. Now that may seem quite crazy. ButRead More

Trends, micro-trends and time frames

Important in trend-following is to know your time frame and which trend you’re following. It’s easy to forget. Sometimes a trader may start off on a 4H time frame and then see and opportunity on a 1D time frame. The initial acceptable loss (the stop-loss) would have been determined on the 4H. Switching to a higher time frame and keeping the same stop-loss  as a lower one is not a good idea. Why? It meansRead More

What is and is not prediction?

The nature of what ‘prediction’ means has come up in a couple days ago, in one of my online discussions. The words that caused me to look into this were, “What’s harder to predict? 1 pip movement or 1000 pip movement?” – in the course an exchange of ideas on different methods. This question was partly rhetorical and somewhat argumentative (not that we were having an argument). It came from a seasoned trader who had on several occasions before claimedRead More

Williams Vix Fix on 2H charts

I’ve explored Williams Vix Fix on mainly 4H charts in the past. Over several weeks I’ve been looking at 2H charts to see if WVF works on these timeframes. My observations are that in some situations they can be valuable. Of course, WVF requires careful attention to detail and interpretation. In general only signals coming from a deep pullback in price in an uptrend are reliable. When you’re watching price unfolding, you can’t really knowRead More