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Bitcoin: Investor, trader, gambler or idiot?

In the last few months we’ve received inquiries from several about Bitcoin and various similar things, often referred to as cryptocurrencies. In essence many of these folk are the ones who missed out on making millions by not buying a few Bitcoin when it was dirt cheap. Now, they don’t want to make the same mistake so are looking around for a second chance. You can’t blame them of course – if the missed opportunityRead More

Is Parabolic Mayhem ahead?

On Tradingview I’ve put up a Vlog about this which is embedded below. I say what I see. I’m focusing on the form of movements of the US30 compared with the correction on the parabolic Bitcoin. The evidence is there, which I think everybody can see. Just to be clear nothing in this post is a prediction or recommendation. See our SYP disclaimer. The following vlog is downloadable or viewable in larger format on Tradingview.Read More

Courses, horses – or the mind?

If you’re reading this looking just for the best course to attend, you may be disappointed. I go deeper than the simple issue of ‘which courses‘ or ‘what course is best’. Introduction I’m sharing a summary of my experiences over the last 4 years, so that others can see something more about ‘courses’ – and what courses can never give you. I am nobody known or big in the trading world. I do not offerRead More

The nature of expectation in financial trading

On several occasions I’ve referred to ‘expectation‘ as against ‘prediction‘. I can expect a delivery of a package at my home this morning (for example) but that does not mean I know it is going to arrive for certain ‘this morning’ or that I predict that it will. ‘Expectation’ means a reasoned position/opinion based in information I might have or inferences I may make based on a range of things. How is expectation important inRead More

Stalking the microstructure of chaos

On occasions a trader may need to turn up the microscope and look deeply into the chaos. For what? A micro-fracture, a microtrend or a small bubble movement that is like the flap of a butterfly’s wings – from which evolves a hurricane. This is the nature of chaos. The chart below shows a small rising wedge down to the 5 min time frame. ‘We’ don’t know what will happen next. Rising wedges on anyRead More

What is gambling?

Gambling is a bad word and a bad thing for most people. Strangely enough at September 2014, it was estimated that “70 per cent of UK adults, more than 32 million people, play the lottery on a regular basis.” This means that 70% of the UK population are gamblers. The percentage of people taking chances on the Lottery have varied from 32% to 70% in 20 years. Concepts So what is gambling? Some say investing in stocks is gambling. OthersRead More

Desensitisation, confidence and the crash

Following a winning run of trades a new trader is likely to think or feel, “I can do this!” This sort of feeling is like to come especially if they were big wins emerging from difficult trades that were not expected to win. We are human. There is that sense of victory over difficult circumstances – and a sense of improved performance or skill. However, many a new trader will have experienced a run ofRead More

Traps and perspectives

Perspective is everything if you’re a day trader. You may know you’re in a winning situation from what’s happening on the charts. But what lies lurking for you? How can you spot the traps? It’s simple but not easy: change your perspective. The following composite graphic shows how a failure to change perspective could have hurt. [Click on image and then zoom in for a clearer view] DISCLAIMER: The information provided herein is opinion only.Read More

Get the trend in perspective

Perspective is everything! The following charts show different perspectives of NZDCAD. The moral of this story here is, not to maintain a narrow focus. This will require some deep thought. Perspectives change when you change your perspective. 

Looking again at Earnings Releases

This recent bounce on DEERE & CO has got me looking again at Earnings Releases.   For those who would play ER’s a Guaranteed stop maybe advisable (cost of this need to be factored into the equation) or Reward to Risk ratios. Alternatively no guaranteed stops may be taken but risk of significant slippage would need to be assessed.