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Bitcoin: Investor, trader, gambler or idiot?

In the last few months we’ve received inquiries from several about Bitcoin and various similar things, often referred to as cryptocurrencies. In essence many of these folk are the ones who missed out on making millions by not buying a few Bitcoin when it was dirt cheap. Now, they don’t want to make the same mistake so are looking around for a second chance. You can’t blame them of course – if the missed opportunityRead More

On luck, chance and prediction

In several posts the issue of luck and chance were touched on. There is a need to explore this further, as many who know little about financial trading believe it’s largely about luck and chance. Introduction It is important that words like luck and chance are defined here. Luck as a concept is outlined in the infographic below. A chance is a probability that is known or foreseeable. We separate luck and chance, though in many circlesRead More

AUDUSD – bearish

AUDUSD is at this time at a potentially critical point. The charts will need much further study. This is not a recommendation to take a position. DISCLAIMER: The information provided herein is opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarise, we do not provide investment advice, nor do we makeRead More

EURUSD – learning from reflection

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. We can learn lessons but in doing so there is a risk of the coulda-shoulda-woulda phenomenon. The following charts show some interesting features in EURUSD. Any lessons there should be applied cautiously. 

Stalking GBPJPY and AUDUSD.

The chart with annotations below shows some interesting possibilities. Price may or may not reach the striking zone in the charts below. They don’t mind if the prey escapes and moves on for a while; they’ll catch um another time!!  Good snipers wait in the ‘bush’, stalking their prey for a high probability ‘kill’ conditions. Snipers know that there is a chance that they can miss, that’s why they wait on optimal conditions. How itRead More

Looking again at Earnings Releases

This recent bounce on DEERE & CO has got me looking again at Earnings Releases.   For those who would play ER’s a Guaranteed stop maybe advisable (cost of this need to be factored into the equation) or Reward to Risk ratios. Alternatively no guaranteed stops may be taken but risk of significant slippage would need to be assessed.

How following a trend can work

The chart below shows an ideal situation. In this example the trend was entered quite late. Caution: ideal does not mean representative of all trades. To learn more study the chart, where it is accepted that a very high percentage of setups will fail/lose. This is a game about losing but it’s not for losers! If the trend was spotted in time it could have been followed for a 1425 point gain over the courseRead More

Comparison of trend following with non-trend following trade scenarios.

Trend following trades are worlds apart from the usual trading you’d find out there on the net. This is about the big money. The big boys do this cuz they want the big money! They’re not interested in jumping in and out of markets with a few harmonic trades here and there. They want the full monty. So – what’s the matter with you?! Why can’t you do it? Well – you don’t have to.Read More

Who the devil is Aroon?

Aroon is not a ‘who’. Aroon is an indicator of momentum in the markets. But it does more than show momentum. It is about time-momentum which is a novel and under-appreicated concept. The Aroon was developed by Tushar Chande  (PhD in Engineering and MBA at the time). In 1995 Chande first published his ideas on the Aroon, in Stocks & Commodities – a most respected journal contributed to by people of exceptional qualifications and trading experience.Read More

Trend continuation and trend following

The terms ‘trend continuation’ and ‘trend following’ have caused me some confusion for quite some time until about 6 months ago. The first obvious difficulty is the use of the words themselves. It’s natural to think that if a trend is continuing then you must be following it. But the two techniques are rather different. I will try to crystallise what I’ve discovered (and I may not be 100% correct). [See disclaimer at the end.]Read More