• Conversation with a failed trader

    Today I met a chap who is a failed trader. This was a rare opportunity. I had known him for about 3 months just fromRead More

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    Conversation with a failed trader
  • The loser’s game

    The news has been out from August 2018 that the European Securities and Management Agency (ESMA) has compelled all brokers (subject to its jurisdiction) toRead More

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    The loser’s game
  • Bitcoin: Investor, trader, gambler or idiot?

    In the last few months we’ve received inquiries from several about Bitcoin and various similar things, often referred to as cryptocurrencies. In essence many ofRead More

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    Bitcoin: Investor, trader, gambler or idiot?
  • Microtrends and risk aversion

    Many a trader will have looked at the same chart (say AUDUSD) at different times (let’s say 4 hours apart), and had doubts or anRead More

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    Microtrends and risk aversion
  • So did you get it right?

    Did you get it right? This is an important question for new and seasoned traders to think about – but there is a problem withRead More

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    So did you get it right?
  • New traders conned

    This morning I receive yet another email from somebody selling a system for beating the markets, subject to terms and conditions. It’s some software thatRead More

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    New traders conned
  • This is worth your next million

    Lots of new traders are looking for a magic solution to make money. They come into trading as a sort of flirtation – to seeRead More

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    This is worth your next million
  • Sterling causes excitement

    Those who were watching Pound Sterling, would have seen some excitement recently. The Prime Minister, Theresa May, called a snap election on 8th June 2017.Read More

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    Sterling causes excitement
  • Mission Impossible – early notice.

    What if there was a way to take money out of the markets (legally of course) without  having to figure anything?! That must be theRead More

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    Mission Impossible – early notice.
  • Nerves of steel – like Formula 1 racing.

    Many new traders are unaware that they actually need nerves of steel. Some will argue that ‘nerves’ are not part of the equation – ifRead More

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    Nerves of steel  – like Formula 1 racing.
  • Dreamers exploited

    The more I look around the net on trading courses, the more I come to think that there is a big scam going on. SomeRead More

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    Dreamers exploited
  • Tools – not fools!

    The tools referred to here are ‘physical’ things – as against ‘psychological’. This is about some of the stuff that could be of use inRead More

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    Tools – not fools!

A resource for new and seasoned financial traders who are serious about developing their skills.

Caught a big fish

The infographic below shows a big fish on the hook. Well, big fish are probably harder to reel in but they’ll supply more protein – innit?!! They’ll compensate for most of the losses on small fish thrown back or lost. Yes, my line may be snapped – no problem – cuz I know there are other big fish in the sea. DISCLAIMER: The information provided herein is opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statementsRead More

Is common sense allowed in trading?

The answer to this question is ‘no’ – if you’ve been trained in some system of rules, which you’re meant to follow rigidly.  The beauty of trend-following methods, is that it allows for a degree of common sense.  Indicators are there to help paint a picture. Trend followers are not chained by indicators or rules. There are some traders who cannot trade well without a set of rigid rules. It is not the purpose ofRead More

Expecting to lose – the sleep test

Nobody likes to lose – I can safely say. It’s been hardwired in us as part of the survival instinct, that we need to win. Financial trading is a very different ‘game’. You have to expect to lose, in order to win. This is not to say that we have to like losing. Instead we need to get close to the idea that losing is not actually losing. Now that may seem quite crazy. ButRead More

Trends, micro-trends and time frames

Important in trend-following is to know your time frame and which trend you’re following. It’s easy to forget. Sometimes a trader may start off on a 4H time frame and then see and opportunity on a 1D time frame. The initial acceptable loss (the stop-loss) would have been determined on the 4H. Switching to a higher time frame and keeping the same stop-loss  as a lower one is not a good idea. Why? It meansRead More

How following a trend can work

The chart below shows an ideal situation. In this example the trend was entered quite late. Caution: ideal does not mean representative of all trades. To learn more study the chart, where it is accepted that a very high percentage of setups will fail/lose. This is a game about losing but it’s not for losers! If the trend was spotted in time it could have been followed for a 1425 point gain over the courseRead More

What is and is not prediction?

The nature of what ‘prediction’ means came up a couple days ago, in one of my online discussions. The words that caused me to look into this were, “What’s harder to predict? 1 pip movement or 1000 pip movement?” – in the course an exchange of ideas on different methods. This question was partly rhetorical and somewhat argumentative (not that we were having an argument). It came from a seasoned trader who had on several occasions before claimed to predictRead More

Comparison of trend following with non-trend following trade scenarios.

Trend following trades are worlds apart from the usual trading you’d find out there on the net. This is about the big money. The big boys do this cuz they want the big money! They’re not interested in jumping in and out of markets with a few harmonic trades here and there. They want the full monty. So – what’s the matter with you?! Why can’t you do it? Well – you don’t have to.Read More

EURUSD Analysis

This is my latest analysis on EURUSD. This is based on combining a number of indicators to find a probability estimate of where the trend may go. In this analysis a trend is identified. No prediction is made. A strategy for entry and following of the trend is worked out.  Probability estimates based on standard indicators: 1. EMA50 2. Aroon 19 (a customised version). 3. BuySellSignal 4. ATR stop-loss by Vervoort. 5. RSI. 6. FibonacciRead More

Managers of chaos

The following thoughts came to me in the middle of the night. The natural human tendency when we see a pattern is to predict/expect what may happen next. This is a powerful ‘unconscious’ urge. Markets are chaos. We may see patterns in the chaos.  All chaotic systems form patterns. The patterns are meaningless to the chaotic system. Patterns have meaning for us, in that they represent probabilities. But the chaos does not obey patterns. It’sRead More

More on trend following

Trend following is where the money really is! Why? Because you’re not bobbing in and out of the markets trying to catch a few quid. Instead you’re finding established trends to ride for quite a long way. There are several ways to catch trends. See: Trading with Guppy and  Revisiting the Williams Vix Fix . The technique in the chart below is based mainly on using Aroon and RSI indicators. This seems more efficient and less energy/timeRead More