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September, 2016

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Complex trends

For some time I’ve been looking at trend lines. It has been noticeable that not all trends are simple. Complex trends may have minor trends within them as in the example below. Why is this important? It’s about how or when you enter a trend. Trend lines are fascinating when you watch them over a long period of time. We can’t really explain them Their power needs to be respected.

Stalking GBPJPY and AUDUSD.

The chart with annotations below shows some interesting possibilities. Price may or may not reach the striking zone in the charts below. They don’t mind if the prey escapes and moves on for a while; they’ll catch um another time!!  Good snipers wait in the ‘bush’, stalking their prey for a high probability ‘kill’ conditions. Snipers know that there is a chance that they can miss, that’s why they wait on optimal conditions. How itRead More

Profiting from greed

It is possible to profit from greed as much as it is from panic. The following chart was not a prediction. It was an expectation and it materialised.

Deceptiveness of the RSI

The RSI (relative strength index) is classified as a ‘leading indicator’ because it is thought to have predictive value. By contrast lagging indicators are said to simply follow price and have less predictive value e.g. bollinger bands. The reality is that no indicator can predict anything and all indicators have limited predictive value because they all rely on historical price movements. Notions of predictive value are formed after events have happened, and are subject toRead More

Dreamers exploited

The more I look around the net on trading courses, the more I come to think that there is a big scam going on. Some of the supposed greatest traders out there are selling trainings and courses. They’re selling dreams for the most part. Look, I just don’t get it – if you’re making millions why would you wish to sell new traders whatever opportunity at £1799 reduced from £9977? Do you really need theRead More

Assessing trend strength

It’s usually possible to easily spot the direction of a trend by looking at a chart – that’s the easy part of trading. What’s not as easy is to work out how strong the trend is. By ‘strong’ I mean, if you’re putting your money on the trend going in the preferred direction, you would wish to have some idea of how powerful or reliable is the push. See below a clear trend down onRead More