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May, 2016

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The power of time momentum

I’ve now coined the term ‘stealth trading’ to mean trend following. All this is perfectly legal!! The chart below shows generosity to the markets. No longer are we fighting with the markets. We’re being kind in order to get our due returns. This is entirely different to a snatch-and-grab approach. See original assessment here at Tradingview. This is a follow up to EURUSD Analysis on 13th May 2016. (Snapshot reinserted here for ease of reference.)

Stealth trading

I’ve now coined the term ‘stealth trading’ to mean trend following. All this is perfectly legal!! The chart below shows generosity to the markets. No longer are we fighting with the markets. We’re being kind in order to get our due returns. This is entirely different to a snatch-and-grab approach. See original assessment here at Tradingview. This is a follow up to EURUSD Analysis on 13th May 2016. (Snapshot reinserted here for ease of reference.)

Caught a big fish

The infographic below shows a big fish on the hook. Well, big fish are probably harder to reel in but they’ll supply more protein – innit?!! They’ll compensate for most of the losses on small fish thrown back or lost. Yes, my line may be snapped – no problem – cuz I know there are other big fish in the sea. DISCLAIMER: The information provided herein is opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statementsRead More

Is common sense allowed in trading?

The answer to this question is ‘no’ – if you’ve been trained in some system of rules, which you’re meant to follow rigidly.  The beauty of trend-following methods, is that it allows for a degree of common sense.  Indicators are there to help paint a picture. Trend followers are not chained by indicators or rules. There are some traders who cannot trade well without a set of rigid rules. It is not the purpose ofRead More

Expecting to lose – the sleep test

Nobody likes to lose – I can safely say. It’s been hardwired in us as part of the survival instinct, that we need to win. Financial trading is a very different ‘game’. You have to expect to lose, in order to win. This is not to say that we have to like losing. Instead we need to get close to the idea that losing is not actually losing. Now that may seem quite crazy. ButRead More

Trends, micro-trends and time frames

Important in trend-following is to know your time frame and which trend you’re following. It’s easy to forget. Sometimes a trader may start off on a 4H time frame and then see and opportunity on a 1D time frame. The initial acceptable loss (the stop-loss) would have been determined on the 4H. Switching to a higher time frame and keeping the same stop-loss  as a lower one is not a good idea. Why? It meansRead More

How following a trend can work

The chart below shows an ideal situation. In this example the trend was entered quite late. Caution: ideal does not mean representative of all trades. To learn more study the chart, where it is accepted that a very high percentage of setups will fail/lose. This is a game about losing but it’s not for losers! If the trend was spotted in time it could have been followed for a 1425 point gain over the courseRead More

What is and is not prediction?

The nature of what ‘prediction’ means came up a couple days ago, in one of my online discussions. The words that caused me to look into this were, “What’s harder to predict? 1 pip movement or 1000 pip movement?” – in the course an exchange of ideas on different methods. This question was partly rhetorical and somewhat argumentative (not that we were having an argument). It came from a seasoned trader who had on several occasions before claimed to predictRead More

Comparison of trend following with non-trend following trade scenarios.

Trend following trades are worlds apart from the usual trading you’d find out there on the net. This is about the big money. The big boys do this cuz they want the big money! They’re not interested in jumping in and out of markets with a few harmonic trades here and there. They want the full monty. So – what’s the matter with you?! Why can’t you do it? Well – you don’t have to.Read More

EURUSD Analysis

This is my latest analysis on EURUSD. This is based on combining a number of indicators to find a probability estimate of where the trend may go. In this analysis a trend is identified. No prediction is made. A strategy for entry and following of the trend is worked out.  Probability estimates based on standard indicators: 1. EMA50 2. Aroon 19 (a customised version). 3. BuySellSignal 4. ATR stop-loss by Vervoort. 5. RSI. 6. FibonacciRead More