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April, 2016

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Managers of chaos

The following thoughts came to me in the middle of the night. The natural human tendency when we see a pattern is to predict/expect what may happen next. This is a powerful ‘unconscious’ urge. Markets are chaos. We may see patterns in the chaos.  All chaotic systems form patterns. The patterns are meaningless to the chaotic system. Patterns have meaning for us, in that they represent probabilities. But the chaos does not obey patterns. It’sRead More

More on trend following

Trend following is where the money really is! Why? Because you’re not bobbing in and out of the markets trying to catch a few quid. Instead you’re finding established trends to ride for quite a long way. There are several ways to catch trends. See: Trading with Guppy and  Revisiting the Williams Vix Fix . The technique in the chart below is based mainly on using Aroon and RSI indicators. This seems more efficient and less energy/timeRead More

Who the devil is Aroon?

Aroon is not a ‘who’. Aroon is an indicator of momentum in the markets. But it does more than show momentum. It is about time-momentum which is a novel and under-appreicated concept. The Aroon was developed by Tushar Chande  (PhD in Engineering and MBA at the time). In 1995 Chande first published his ideas on the Aroon, in Stocks & Commodities – a most respected journal contributed to by people of exceptional qualifications and trading experience.Read More

DAX v EURO correlation

Correlation is about how certain things are related. Some instruments are inversely correlated i.e. if price goes up on one, then price tends to go down on another. Positive correlation  means they move in the same direction. It is almost never the case that there is perfect correlation between two instruments. Interestingly the DAX (GER30) which is the German stock market index, has a broad inverse correlation with the EURUSD currency pair, especially on higherRead More