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What happened with Disney?

Disney was a learning lesson for me. I lost going long at the Earnings Release – limited of course by my stop-loss. This analysis is about learning lessons – and about a possible opportunity to go long again (subject as always to the SYP).

In summary:

1. Disney being a strong performer had always jumped higher on a majority of Earnings Releases.

2. It was natural to go long again.

3. However, even as Disney performed better than expected again, price crashed out!

Lessons learned after the crash – not to be repeated again!  (see end of post). screenshot074_2015-08-16_disney

Lessons:

1. Beware of the pitfalls of inductive logic.

2. Assess markets for overbought and oversold positions more carefully on higher time frames.

Opportunity

Disney may well rise again after this recent price correction from the over-bought position. Now may be a good time to go long.

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