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February, 2015

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Keryx post-trade analysis

The following is on Keryx (and I don’t know them or what they do). That’s not important in spreadbetting. Spotting patterns and trends that are meaningful and exploitable, is the important business. Keryx was showing signs of flattening in the few days approaching their earnings release (ER). Based on my strategy: Another Way and A strategy: Earnings Releases (now being modified), I decided to enter Keryx going long and I’m currently in profit, and haveRead More

Kroger Co Analysis

Kroger looks very interesting. It appears to be a low volatility stock, that’s moving upward slowly and steadily. Of course, whilst past patterns predict future patterns, no one (I know) can say what will happen. Kroger could well fall 2000pts. I don’t know. But the game is about much more than prediction. It is about acceptable loss in relation to probability of making a favourable move. One important feature of this stock is that itRead More

The market sniper-elite–videos

Francis Hunt (aka the ‘the market sniper’) is in a series of excellent video interviews on YouTube. Don’t miss this. This is absolutely golden stuff for all new traders – and even experienced traders. Time spent on this could be worth millions!! The full series is here. He talks about his interests and sports etc.how he spends his time outside of trading. http://youtu.be/jM_fx-JTdpY?t=7m54s Talks about average infantry vs sniper in army http://youtu.be/ZBZUWr7puOg?t=4m36s Proportion of time spent analysingRead More

No pain no gain

How’s about a £5000 loss in a matter of minutes – yes that’ll be painful to most people. I’m sure you’ll read on – but learn from this. Let my pain be our gain. Too often traders talk only about strings of significant wins, and losses are under-represented. I break that ‘rule’ right here. The annotated screenshot below shows how risk that one is blind to can cause pain. But I gain from the painRead More

How Technical Indicators can fail

Most noob traders get over excited about technical analysis. They spend much time working out how they work and trying them out. However, the story is the same for most experienced traders: they tend not to rely heavily on technical indicators; relying more on knowledge, skill and experience. No – that’s not intuition. That’s not guessing based on experience. It’s about gaining deeper insights into market psychology. The psychology of all punters in a shareRead More

Trailing stops and stop-losses

Trailing stops lock in profits, whilst stop-losses limit losses. Using these effectively requires deeper understanding and experience than is outlined here. [The ‘sue yourself’ principle applies as usual.] A stop-loss (sometimes just called stop) – is when you set a price where your trade is exited automatically. If going long, in this scenario (you buy) – you expect price to climb, and great if it does. But you don’t know whether it will fall seconds,Read More

The enemies–the fuller list

The list of enemies is probably the most important thing for all new traders. In other posts I’ve referred to ‘the enemies’ within. The fact of the matter is that the obstacles and failures in trading are due to the hidden enemies. These are enemies in the mind. Sometimes they’re not ‘so hidden’. Traders may be aware of them but unable to do anything about them. I don’t propose to give instructions on how toRead More

Stalking AMT

The AMT setup and analysis may present some interesting opportunities – to win or lose. I keep reminding others that the chances of losing are 60% or more. This is a game for losers who know how to limit their losses and run with their winners. Sue yourself if you trade this and lose.

COSTAR ANALYSIS

Costar presents some interesting possibilities as their earnings release approaches on 25th February 2015. (Clicking image below brings up a larger view – and not that this is a heavy-weight share which means there can be substantial losses if traded incorrectly. This is not an encouragement to trade. As we always say, sue yourself if you lose your money).  

A strategy: using Earnings Release dates

The following is one of many strategies that can be used to maximise the chances of making winning trades. As always strategies are tools, how they are used depends on individual judgement, after gaining the requisite knowledge, skill and experience (clicking diagrams – two below – opens larger views). See also NASDAQ Earnings Calendar. Results of the above strategy – when applied properly. Tough – I can’t teach how to apply a strategy and IRead More